How Long Will It Take For the Airline Industry to Recover?
Many journalists and industry observers
have been obsessively searching for “green shoots” indicating the beginning of
a recovery, but much of this commentary misses the mark.
Last month, investment research firm
Bernstein published an analysis calling for narrowbody traffic to recover by
2023 and widebody traffic by 2025.
Lehman Offers This Assessment
caution will lead most countries to take an additional 6-12 months after
herd immunity is achieved before reopening to most inbound non-resident
for domestic or regional travel, passengers must feel safe from infection
before they’ll fly again.
with greater internal consumption of domestic production should recover
sooner than trade-dependent countries. Accordingly, domestic travel in the
US, EU, and China is likely to return sooner than in most other regions.
business travelers back on airplanes will require renewed economic
activity, in addition to the obvious safety requirements.
video conferencing technologies like Zoom, Skype, and Google Meet make a
similar structural shift all but inevitable as businesses learn how to
operate in a COVID-impaired world where air travel is challenging and
long as travel demand remains depressed, supply will fall in other parts
of the travel ecosystem, especially hotels.
that restore capacity too quickly will see their profitability dented as
too many seats chase too few passengers.Bottom line: Global air travel
won’t be back to pre-COVID volume for several years
The above bullet points from a long
article. Here is Leeham's Bottom line: "Global air travel won’t be
back to pre-COVID volume for several years"
IATA does not expect passenger traffic to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until
The timeline for a passenger traffic
recovery remains uncertain. The IATA does not expect passenger traffic to
return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2024. Leeham Co.predicts that it will
take four to eight years before traffic returns to