The 6% share will be
equivalent to 5.3 exajoules, the IEA said in its December report The Role of
E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport.
Road transport accounted for nearly all liquid
biofuels use in 2022 and this will tail off only slightly to 98% by 2030, the
IEA said, following comments on biofuels demand in its October World Energy
Outlook.
In October, the IEA
said that biofuels accounted for 2.2 million b/d of oil demand in 2022,
compared to 41.3 million b/d of road transport demand and equivalent to 5% of
that, compared to 3 million b/d of biofuels demand or 7% of total road
transport expected in 2030.
“Expanding biofuels
beyond 9 EJ would require other feedstocks that are available in larger
quantities and do not compete for land resources for food and feed production,â€
the December IEA said, as reported by S&P Global.
These include new
feedstocks compatible with existing technologies that can be grown on marginal
land or as cover crops with current estimates at near 8 EJ of liquid biofuel
potential.
Global biodiesel demand is to continue its growth
and set to reach more than 1.4 million b/d in 2025, up from roughly 1 million
b/d in 2022 and less than 600,000
b/d ten years ago, analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights said. The bulk
of this will be for blending in road diesel, they said.