Supply chain disruptions and rising demand boost container freight rates globally with analysts warning of market correction later

 Notably, the Shanghai Container Freight Index, a key indicator of shipping rates from major Chinese ports, reached its highest level of 2024 last week. The index has surged by 31% year-on-year and by 72% since mid-December, according to analysts at Jefferies.

Container shipping companies are also witnessing a surge in freight rates, paralleling the upward trajectory of their stocks. This momentum reflects a broader trend in the container shipping industry characterized by robust demand and supply chain disruptions.

The surge in freight rates can be attributed to various factors, including increased trade volumes and disruptions in major trade lanes. Ocean carriers have been forced to divert away from the Red Sea due to ongoing attacks on vessels, redirecting shipments around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. This diversion, although adding thousands of extra miles to journeys, has become necessary to mitigate risks.

Analysts caution that the container market remains tightly balanced and vulnerable to shocks, with 2024 shaping up to be an exceptional year characterized by tightness in vessel capacity. Despite the early commencement of the peak season, which typically runs from June to September, demand for shipping capacity remains strong. This sustained demand is expected to keep freight rates elevated deep into the second quarter.

While analysts at Jefferies rate shares of major shipping companies such as Maersk and Zim, they warn of a potential market correction later in the year as the high season for shipping may end sooner than usual. However, for now, the market remains in a strong position, driven by the momentum in freight rates.