GDP growth likely to be 6.7% in Q4, around 7% in FY24: Ind-RA

The GDP numbers for the fourth quarter (January-March 2024) and the provisional estimates for the 2023-24 fiscal are scheduled to be released by the Government on May 31. The country’s economy grew 8.2 per cent in the June quarter, 8.1 per cent in the September quarter and 8.4 per cent in the December quarter of 2023-24.

“We are expecting the fourth quarter growth to be 6.7 per cent and the overall GDP growth for FY24 to be around 6.9-7 per cent,” Sinha told PTI Videos in an interview. He said the growth rate in the first two quarters benefited from a low base, though the 8.4 per cent growth rate in the third (October-December 2023) quarter was surprising.

“When we analyse the data, then what is visible is the wedge between the GVA and GDP. A large impetus to Q3 GDP has come from higher tax collection, but this phenomenon is unlikely to be repeated in the fourth quarter. The wedge between the GDP and GVA is unlikely to be repeated in the fourth quarter,” he noted.

While the gross value added (GVA) was 6.5 per cent in the third quarter, the GDP growth rate stood at 8.4 per cent. This wedge is on account of higher taxes collected during the quarter. GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a given period. GVA is GDP minus net taxes (gross tax collection minus subsidy).

The Finance Ministry, in its monthly economic review, said resilient growth, robust economic activity indicators, price stability, and steady external sector performance continue to support promising economic performance amid uncertain global conditions.