As
mainline vessels have increased in size, the demand for connecting services to
cater for second line ports has also increased along with the sizes of
ships that feed these ports. Braemar
research analyst Jonathon Roach argues that the orderbook for feeder
vessels larger than 1,000 teu and up to 3,000 teu is insufficient to
meet the demand going forward, given that there are few orders for the very
small ships.
The broker’s figures show the
orderbook for vessels in the 1,000-3,000 teu size range is well below the level of expected
scrapping given the number of ageing ships in the fleet and the incoming
environmental regulations that will impact all sectors in shipping.
“We divided the data into 1,000-1,999
and 2,000-2,999 teu, with a small variance to capture ships on the upper edges
of the 2,999 teu range. For the 1,000-1,999 teu sector, 21% of the ships are
aged 20 years or more. For the larger regional types 2,000-2,999 teu, 23%
of the vessels are aged 20 years or more,” explained Roach.
Orderbook statistics for vessels in
the 1,000-2,000 teu range are 109 vessels totalling 157,597 teu, according to
consultant MDS Transmodal, and within the current fleet 1,701 vessels,
415 are over 20 years old. In the larger size range, the situation is much
worse, with 240 ships from a total fleet of 875 currently over 20 years old and
just 39 vessels on order.
To cope with this looming shortfall
in feeder vessels, Roach said: “In the
future we may see upsizing of feeders to 3,000 teu plus, but that is a long way
off.”
He added that operationally, the
flexibility of smaller, traditional, feeders at hub ports is an advantage given
that they are easier to handle and can be squeezed into quay space more easily
than larger ships. Moreover, smaller ships have the flexibility to operate in
ports where larger vessels are restricted by draught, turning circles and/or
quay sizes.
Dynamar analyst Darron Wadey has analysed the
feeder sector in detail and believes there could be significant consequences if
there is a considerable shortage of the necessary feeder vessels. Wadey, however, believes there are
other solutions such as the creation of more direct mainline services to
gateway ports currently served only by feeders.