International students face uncertain future as governments seek easy targets to rein in surging immigration

International students — long the golden goose for universities and colleges in advanced economies — face an increasingly uncertain future as governments seek easy targets to rein in surging immigration.

International education is a roughly $200 billion global business, according to data company Holon IQ, with the UK, Canada and Australia three of its biggest players.

In the UK, one of the world’s biggest destinations for foreign students, the Labour party while in opposition vowed to retain a ban on international students bringing dependents to Britain — the largest source of migration since 2019. In the Netherlands, a far-right coalition has proposed restricting foreign students’ access to Dutch universities.

In Canada, where one in 40 people is an international student, a government clampdown is forcing “puppy mill” colleges to shut down programs. And in Australia, where that ratio is even greater at one in 33, the government has proposed caps on foreign enrollments in universities and is targeting “dodgy providers.”

The impact is already being felt — aggregate visa data for the first quarter of 2024 showed volumes to the UK, Canada and Australia down between 20% and 30% from a year earlier, according to Sydney-listed student placement services and testing company IDP Education Ltd., which operates in all three markets.

“Students are the easiest group to control in terms of numbers, that’s why they’re No.1 on the chopping list and universities aren’t particularly powerful constituencies so they’re probably also a reasonable political target,” said Andrew Norton, Professor in the Practice of Higher Education Policy at the Australian National University in Canberra.

Keir Starmer’s Labour party last month ended 14 years of Conservative rule in the UK and hasn’t settled on its immigration policy since the July election landslide. Canada and Australia have elections due in the coming 14 months