Oil refiners likely to add 35-40 mt capacity spending Rs 2 tln by FY30

This will require a capital expenditure of Rs 1.9-2.2 trillion, with most of the incremental capacity additions coming up in brownfield expansions.

In the decade through fiscal 2024, the country’s refining capacity increased by 42 mt to 257 mt, primarily to cater to the growing domestic consumption, as exports remained rangebound at 60-65 mt during these years, according to a Crisil analysis.

Domestic intake of petroleum products clipped at a compound annual growth rate of 4 percent in the past decade. Transport fuels, accounting for 56 percent of demand, grew 4 percent, while naphtha (7 percent of consumption), grew 2 percent. The rest of the consumption pie, comprising liquefied petroleum gas and bitumen among others, cumulatively grew almost 4 percent.

Within transport fuels, diesel (40 percent of consumption) grew 3 percent; petrol (13.5 percent of consumption) grew 8 percent, and jet fuel (3 percent of consumption) grew 4 percent.

Anuj Sethi, a senior director with the rating company, expects overall petroleum product consumption to slightly moderate and register 3 percent annually through the next six years, primarily due to slower growth of 2-3 percent in transport fuel demand as fuel economy improves will the rising share of vehicle sales with alternative cleaner fuels, and 20 percent ethanol blending target proposed by the government.

Amongst transport fuels, 75 percent of diesel sale is linked to commercial vehicles, wherein a move towards electric vehicles or usage of natural gas by buses will lower diesel demand, thereby moderating growth to 2-2.5 percent per annum over the next six years, he said.