Cause and Effect | Climate commitments continue to miss key targets of the Paris Agreement: NDC synthesis report

The latest Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) synthesis report reveals a stark reality. Despite increased participation and enhanced commitments from nations worldwide, the world remains significantly off-track from meeting the Paris Agreement's temperature goals.

NDCs are national climate action plans updated every five years by countries to align with the Paris Agreement, which seeks to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C, ideally to 1.5°C.

Current plans combined, if fully implemented, would see emissions of 51.5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2030 — a level only 2.6% lower than in 2019. Greenhouse gas pollution at these levels will guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception.

Most concerning is the rapid depletion of the remaining carbon budget. Current NDCs would consume 86% of the budget for 1.5°C by 2030, leaving only approximately 70 Gt CO2 — equivalent to just two years of projected emissions and leaving a narrow window for meaningful action.

The report highlights a critical disconnect between ambition and implementation capacity…A promising development is the increasing integration of climate commitments into national policy frameworks, with 48% of Parties incorporating NDC targets into legislative, regulatory, and planning processes. This integration suggests a shift from viewing climate commitments as international obligations to treating them as central elements of national development strategies. The high percentage (66%) of Parties highlighting policy coherence with development priorities further indicates progress toward mainstreaming climate action.

However, this integration faces challenges. The need for enhanced stakeholder consultation, gender-sensitive approaches, and recognition of Indigenous Peoples' rights demonstrates the complexity of implementing climate policies in diverse social and economic contexts. The report's emphasis on these aspects suggests that successful climate action requires not just technical solutions but also careful attention to social equity and inclusive governance…Three key areas require immediate attention. First, the rapid depletion of the carbon budget demands accelerated implementation of existing commitments and enhanced ambition in future NDC updates. Second, the international community must address the support gap, particularly in financing and technology transfer, to enable the implementation of conditional commitments. Finally, the integration of climate action with broader development objectives needs strengthening to ensure sustained progress and social acceptance.

The next few years will be critical. With current NDCs projected to use most of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C by 2030, the global community faces a narrow window for transformative action.

The path to meeting Paris Agreement goals remains technically feasible but demands unprecedented coordination and commitment from the global community.