GST Collection at ₹1.82 lakh cr in Nov, lower on monthly basis, higher on yearly basis

Despite the festive season, collection from GST in November dropped to ₹1.82 lakh crore as against ₹1.87 lakh crore of October. However, on an yearly basis, November’s number is 8.5 per cent higher than the corresponding month of the last fiscal. November data is related with goods consumed and services availed in October.

Experts have different interpretation of the data. While some believe the latest number reflects a slowdown in consumption, others say double digit growth in domestic collection means that the consumption picking up. However, all are hopeful that December 21 meeting of GST Council will recommend some measures to boost collection.

Data made public on GST portal on Sunday showed that domestic collection in November rose over 9 per cent, while it was over 10 per cent in April-November period. At the same time, collection from imports rose 5.9 per cent and 6.3 per cent respectively. During the month under review, refund was down by nearly 9 per cent and because of that net collection rose by over 11 per cent in November and over 9 per cent in April-November period.

M S Mani, Partner with Deloitte said that the domestic GST revenue growth of 10 per cent plus in FY25 seems to support the GDP data which indicates an increase in domestic consumption. The import GST revenue growth of 6 per cent also backs foreign trade data which indicates slower growth of non-petroleum imports.  “The projected GDP growth of 7 per cent in FY25 augers well for GST collections in the remaining four months of the current fiscal year, considering that the collections in the first 8 months of FY25 have exceeded that of FY25 by more than ₹1 lakh cr and are ahead of the budget estimates for FY25,” he said.

However, Vivek Jalan, Partner at Tax Connect Advisory Services LLP has a different view. According to him, Income Tax numbers and GST numbers are dichotomous. While YTD Direct Tax Collections till November 10 have grown by more than 15 per cent, the YTD GST collections in that period have grown by only 9.3 per cent. “This shows that while income levels are growing in India, consumption is not aligned accordingly. It may also mean inequality of income in the country,” he said. Both Mani and Jalan expect some measures in the next meeting of GST Council on December 21 in Jaisalmer (Rajasthan), though for different reasons. “The slower single digit growth in some large States like Haryana (2 per cent), Punjab (3 per cent), UP & MP (5 per cent), Tamil Nadu (8 per cent), Telangana (3 per cent) as well the negative growth in Rajasthan (-1 per cent), AP (-10 per cent), Chhattisgarh (-1 per cent) would be an area of concern as these States have significant manufacturing presence and considerable economic impact,” Mani said.

Jalan argued that the YTD GST Collections growth are also below the budgeted growth and considering that nominal GDP growth is around 10.5 per cent, the buoyancy of GST collections is below one. “This may require some food for thought for the GST Council,” he said.