“We perceive the threats to be credible
on the basis that until now, the Houthis have generally followed through on the
threats they have issued,” said Jakob Larsen, head of maritime
safety and security at BIMCO, the world’s largest shipowners’
association by direct membership. Houthi militants are quite likely to attack
ships associated with the UK and US for their airstrikes on Houthi-controlled
areas; the attacks will be extended to the Indian Ocean as well.
Just as in the strait, Houthi rebels are expected not only target ships
associated with Israel in the Indian Ocean but those with the UK and US, which
have conducted airstrikes on Houthi-controlled areas since January.
But others could also suffer collateral damage.
Tankers with Russian oil and Chinese ownership have also been attacked,
possibly due to a lack of updated data, even though the Houthis reportedly told
Beijing and Moscow their ships could enjoy safe travel.
With international navy forces diverting their
resources to protect merchant ships in the Red Sea, security reports suggest a
potential resurgence of Somali piracy since late last year. The pirates
kidnapped some dhows, the 41,600-dwt bulk carrier Ruen and the 58,100-dwt
Abdullah in recent months, though the Indian navy managed to recover the Ruen
when it was used as an attack ship.
Looking forward, shipping companies, especially those
with links to Israel, the UK and US, could divert vessels farther away from the
Houthi target area, as security specialists suggest other counter measures
could be too costly and require additional permission from flag states.
“It
is best to use ships that fall outside the attack criteria established by the
Houthis,” Larsen said.
Larsen’s
suggestion appears realistic and commercially viable.