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Feeder squeeze on the horizon
A feeder capacity shortage could emerge in the short to medium term, according to broker Braemar, as new regulations mix with geopolitics and the resulting economics of disruption.
Dr.G.R.Balakrishnan Jul 02 2024 Shipping News

Feeder squeeze on the horizon

As mainline vessels have increased in size, the demand for connecting services to cater for second line ports has also increased along with the sizes of ships that feed these ports. Braemar research analyst Jonathon Roach argues that the orderbook for feeder vessels larger than 1,000 teu and up to 3,000 teu is insufficient to meet the demand going forward, given that there are few orders for the very small ships.

The broker’s figures show the orderbook for vessels in the 1,000-3,000 teu size range is well below the level of expected scrapping given the number of ageing ships in the fleet and the incoming environmental regulations that will impact all sectors in shipping.

“We divided the data into 1,000-1,999 and 2,000-2,999 teu, with a small variance to capture ships on the upper edges of the 2,999 teu range. For the 1,000-1,999 teu sector, 21% of the ships are aged 20 years or more. For the larger regional types 2,000-2,999 teu, 23% of the vessels are aged 20 years or more,” explained Roach.

Orderbook statistics for vessels in the 1,000-2,000 teu range are 109 vessels totalling 157,597 teu, according to consultant MDS Transmodal, and within the current fleet 1,701 vessels, 415 are over 20 years old. In the larger size range, the situation is much worse, with 240 ships from a total fleet of 875 currently over 20 years old and just 39 vessels on order.

To cope with this looming shortfall in feeder vessels, Roach said: “In the future we may see upsizing of feeders to 3,000 teu plus, but that is a long way off.”

He added that operationally, the flexibility of smaller, traditional, feeders at hub ports is an advantage given that they are easier to handle and can be squeezed into quay space more easily than larger ships. Moreover, smaller ships have the flexibility to operate in ports where larger vessels are restricted by draught, turning circles and/or quay sizes.

Dynamar analyst Darron Wadey has analysed the feeder sector in detail and believes there could be significant consequences if there is a considerable shortage of the necessary feeder vessels. Wadey, however, believes there are other solutions such as the creation of more direct mainline services to gateway ports currently served only by feeders.