India Poised to Lead Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market with 10 Million Tonnes Production by 2040

According to a Deloitte India report, this development could significantly advance the country’s efforts to decarbonize its aviation sector, potentially reducing carbon emissions by 20–25 mt annually. The projected SAF production would exceed India’s estimated domestic demand of 4.5 mt, which aligns with a 15% blending mandate for all flights by 2040. This surplus capacity could position India as a major SAF exporter, serving global markets.

The report outlines a substantial socio-economic impact from this investment, with 1.1 to 1.4 million jobs created across the SAF value chain, and a reduction in India’s crude oil import bill by $5–7 billion annually. Additionally, using agricultural residue as a feedstock for SAF could boost farmers’ incomes by 10–15%, offering a sustainable alternative to crop burning.

Viral Thakker, Partner and Sustainability Leader at Deloitte South Asia, emphasized that India’s abundant feedstock, innovation, and policy support provide a clear path to meeting domestic and global SAF demand. However, the challenge lies in swiftly turning this strategic vision into practical solutions that deliver long-term environmental and economic benefits.

The report notes that India’s estimated surplus of 230 mt of agricultural residue will be critical for ethanol (2G) production, an essential element in the Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) pathway for SAF. In the near term, ethanol (1G) derived from sugar and grain can help accelerate production until the technology fully matures. Other feedstocks like municipal solid waste (MSW), used cooking oil (UCO), sweet sorghum, seaweed, and industrial waste could further enhance SAF potential as technology advances.

Prashanth Nutula, Partner at Deloitte India, highlighted India’s competitive position in the global aviation fuel market, citing its proximity to major airline hubs in the Middle East and Europe, along with favorable cost structures. As global demand for SAF rises, India is poised to play a leading role.

Achieving successful SAF adoption will require coordinated efforts from all stakeholders, including the establishment of a clear long-term demand roadmap, such as Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPO), to stimulate early investments and ensure a stable feedstock supply.