Prior to
COVID-19, back-haul vessel utilisation was around 50 per cent but has
subsequently declined, dropping below 40 per cent in August 2024 for the first
time.
The firm
calculated back-haul utilisation by assuming that all head-haul vessels are 100
per cent filled, which implies that the amount of back-haul cargo, as a ratio
to the head-haul cargo, equals the back-haul utilisation.
Alan
Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, said: “If
we also factor in the distance travelled by the container vessels, measured as
TEU*Miles, we see back-haul utilisation drop below 40 per cent for three
consecutive months, with a record-low number of 36.6 per cent in August 2024.
“It is
therefore very clear that the trade imbalances, from a global perspective, have
worsened sharply since before the pandemic. This is especially true for the five largest deep-sea trades in terms
of volumes shipped, which have all seen a significant worsening in trade
imbalance, compared to the situation pre-pandemic.
According
to the analysis, this means that either head-haul trades will increasingly have
to “pay” more for the repositioning of empty containers, as there are fewer
back-haul containers “paying their own way,” or back-haul shippers will have to pay higher freight rates, as there are fewer
paying back-haul containers as a share of vessel space.
Sea-Intelligence noted that whether a
carrier attempts to shift this additional cost imbalance to the head-haul or
the back-haul is determined by their strategy for serving either market.