According to the
think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), if India were to join the
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) accord, it would not be the
first choice for investors looking to pursue a China+1 strategy.
It also cautioned that the move would
result in flight of domestic capital in the manufacturing sector out of India
and that introducing tariff-free Chinese goods into India could “overwhelm”
MSMEs, as their smaller-scale operations are unlikely to withstand competition
from China’s mass manufacturing. The CEO
of Niti Aayog, BVR Subrahmanyam, stated earlier this month that India ought to
be a party to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific
Partnership, or RCEP. Despite starting talks in 2013, India’s reservations
about the large trade deficit with China were not addressed, hence it left the
RCEP in 2019. GTRI stated that the benefits of joining RCEP are “minimal and
incremental,” particularly in light of China’s opaque trade practices and
India’s growing trade deficits with member nations. “The challenges RCEP poses for India’s domestic industries,
particularly MSMEs and agriculture, suggest a cautious approach,” the GTRI
added.
Furthermore, according to the research,
India currently has a number of working free trade agreements (FTAs) with 13 of
the 15 RCEP members, with the exception of China and New Zealand. Joining the
bloc would probably not open up many new export opportunities for India, as its
shipments to Beijing have not increased in the previous five years. GTRI
refuted the claim that India’s integration into regional value chains (GVCs)
will be aided by RCEP membership, stating that India has not emerged as a major
GVC player despite more than ten years of zero-tariff trade of the majority of
industrial commodities with South Korea, Japan, and ASEAN. According to the
analysis, India’s long-term economic
goals could be best served by concentrating on increasing competitiveness
rather than signing broad trade deals.