“Only the insane would
do that,” he says, stressing: “Predictions in shipping are always wrong.”
Nevertheless, when pressed to give his take on where the dry bulk markets will
be come the end of April next year when he takes the stage at Geneva Dry, the
world’s premier commodities shipping conference, Hashim says a huge amount
depends on the type, and amount of stimulus China will put into its economy.
“That will be the major event that could push the dry bulk markets
significantly. China is not going to show their hand till such time as they see
what barriers Trump enacts against the Chinese economy, and then, and only
then, will they enact countermeasures to support their economy,” Hashim says.
On the return of
Donald Trump to the White House, Hashim is sanguine – tariffs have not stymied
ton-miles thus far, he points out.
“Trade flows under Trump 1.0 and Biden’s continuation and increasing
Trump’s 1.0 into Biden 1.0, have increased, not decreased, trade flows into the
US,” he points out. “If the past is any predictor of trade flows, then as we
have seen all such disruptions tend to have an immediate, but extremely
short-term impact, before leading to increased ton-mile and increased trade.”
Hashim will join Emilie Nourry, head of shipping at Eramet, Karim
Coumine, manager of chartering for minor bulks at Anglo American, and William
Fairclough, the managing director of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings, on
April 28 next year for a new session at Geneva Dry looking at how electric
vehicles are supercharging dry bulk. “EVs
will require more power, as more and more people will be making EVs their
choice of urban transport. As the total number of EVs increases, the power draw
down will keep on increasing world over,” Hashim says, suggesting that
coal-fired power plants will remain vital to electricity grids everywhere for
many years to come.
With more than 35 sponsors already onboard and more than 100 delegates
signed up, Geneva Dry 2025, scheduled for April 28 and 29, is set to welcome
back familiar sessions such as iron ore, coal, agri-commodities, minor bulks
and dry decarbonisation, as well as featuring some new panels including a
50-minute special on forward freight agreements, a chartering spotlight, while
digital efficiency drivers at port and then at sea will form the first two
sessions on Day Two.
Companies attending
include 2020 Bulkers, Anglo
American, BPG Shipping Company, Cargill, Cetus Maritime, CTM, Eastern
Mediterranean Maritime, Enesel, Eramet, Fednav, Fortescue, G2 Ocean, Heidelberg
Materials Trading, Himalaya Shipping, Mandarin Shipping, Marfin Management,
Metbulk Shipping, Norbulk Shipping, Nova Marine Carriers, Precious Shipping,
Seanergy Maritime Holdings, Star Bulk, SwissMarine, Taylor Maritime
Investments, Trafigura, United Maritime Corporation, Vale, Wah Kwong Maritime
Transport Holdings, and Western Bulk.