Rupee falls 9 paise to 85.61 against US dollar in early trade

Forex traders said the rupee has been under continued pressure amid the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance and the “Trump factor” driving up the dollar index (DXY) and US 10-year yields. Additionally, on the domestic front, slowing growth, widening trade deficit, and persistent foreign fund outflows have further fueled the rupee’s depreciation.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened on a weak note at 85.54 then fell further to 85.61 against the American currency, registering a fall of 9 paise over its previous close, on month-end dollar demand from importers and oil marketing companies. On Monday, the rupee dropped 4 paise to 85.52 against the US dollar.

According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, the US Dollar stood tall in 2024 and recorded strong gains against most currencies, as investors braced for fewer US rate cuts and the incoming Trump administration’s policies. “It would be posting strong gains in 2024 against most currencies and its gains have been buoyed by rising treasury yields, a falling yen and European currencies,” Bhansali said.

Bhansali further added that rupee is expected to remain volatile with Tuesday being the last day of roll-over of positions.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.14 per cent down at 107.97.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was up 0.50 per cent at $74.36 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 548.90 points or 0.70 per cent down at 77,699.23 points in morning trade, while Nifty was down 138.90 points or 0.59 per cent to 23,506.00 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded ₹1,893.16 crore in the capital markets on net basis on Monday, according to exchange data.

On the domestic macroeconomic front, India’s current account deficit (CAD) moderated marginally to $11.2 billion or 1.2 per cent of GDP year-on-year in the July-September quarter of 2024-25, according to Reserve Bank data released on Friday.

The CAD, an indicator of the country’s external payment scenario, was $11.3 billion or 1.3 per cent of GDP during the second quarter of 2023-24.