Goods, services exports likely to cross $800 bn in 2024: GTRI

A survey by the economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) estimates that India’s total exports of goods and services will surpass $814 billion in 2024, a 5.58 percent growth. The nation exported USD 768.5 billion worth of goods and services in 2023.

According to this year’s research, merchandise exports are predicted to reach $441.5 billion in 2024, a slight 2.34 percent gain over $431.4 billion the year before. On the other hand, services exports are predicted to increase from $337.5 billion in 2023 to $372.3 billion, a 10.31% increase.

“India’s total exports, encompassing merchandise and services, are projected to exceed $814 billion in 2024, reflecting a 5.58 per cent growth compared to $768.5 billion in 2023,” it said. Sectors such as machinery and electronics are gaining prominence, with machinery’s share in the export basket rising to 6.9 per cent in 2024 from 3.8 per cent in 2014 and electronics climbing to 7.9 per cent in 2024 from 3.3 per cent in 2014.

“These trends underscore India’s growing capabilities in higher-value sectors, a necessary shift for long-term export resilience,” Srivastava said. Traditional sectors of exports, however, are witnessing a decline. Textiles and garments, which accounted for 21.1 per cent of exports in 2004, now represent just 8 per cent, while gems and jewellery have dropped from 16.9 per cent in 2004 to 7.5 per cent in 2024.

“These declines not only reflect changing global demand but also point to India’s struggle to remain competitive in labour-intensive industries,” he said. The coming year poses significant challenges for Indian exports, he cautioned, adding that the global trade growth remains sluggish, hampered by slow economic recovery in developed markets and geopolitical tensions like the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict. Disruptions in Red Sea shipping routes further exacerbate supply chain vulnerabilities.