As 4.4 million TEUs were contracted
during 2024, the second highest ever, the orderbook grew despite deliveries
hitting a new record high of 2.9 million TEUs. Making up 92% of the orderbook capacity, ships of 8,000 TEUs or larger
dominate the orderbook. The largest segment, 12,000-17,000 TEUs, makes up 46%
of the orderbook capacity, according to Rasmussen.
Shipyards in China have benefitted
the most from the last four years’ contracting boom and currently hold 72% of
the orderbook’s 8.3 million TEUs while South Korean and Japanese shipyards hold
22% and 5% respectively.
Liner operators control 79% of the
orderbook capacity, significantly higher than the 61% they control of the fleet
capacity. Having already increased from 56% at the beginning of 2019, liner
operators’ share of fleet capacity is therefore set to continue growing in the
coming years.
Though five ships have already been contracted for
delivery in 2030, 99% of the orderbook will be delivered during 2025-2029. According to the current delivery schedule,
700,000 TEUs will be delivered in 2029 while an average of 1.9 million TEUs
will be delivered during 2025-2028, peaking at 2.2 million TEUs in 2027.
As the recycling of ships during the past four
years has been limited to 166 ships and 256,000 TEUs, the average age of the
fleet has increased by 1.4 years since the beginning of 2020. Consequently, the number of ships
20 years old or older has risen, and they now make up 3.4 million TEUs equal to
11% of the fleet.
If all ships 20 years old or older are recycled
during the next five years, the fleet will grow to 35.8 million TEUs by the end
of 2029, assuming no more ships are contracted for delivery before 2030. That is equal to 16% growth or
average annual growth of 3%. The segments smaller than 8,000 TEUs would see an
average annual contraction of 4% while the segments of 8,000 TEUs or larger
would grow on average by 7% per year.
“It would require 680,000 TEUs per
year to recycle all ships 20 years old or older during the next five years (the
current annual record is 657,000 TEUs) but actual recycling is likely to end
lower. As long as ships cannot fully
return to the Red Sea, recycling will likely continue to be low and at the same
time, the smaller ship segments tend to be recycled later than average.
Therefore, average annual fleet growth during the next five years could end
higher than 3%,” commented Rasmussen.