Clarkson’s 2024 Shipping Market Review is another reminder that
shipping often fares well at times of global conflict and disruption.
Disruption to
energy supply chains as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Red
Sea crisis in the Middle East were key factors in pushing the ClarkSea Index up
by 6% year on year, almost a third higher than the ten-year trend. As
always, there were exceptions to the mainly robust markets, with tankers, VLGCs
and LNG carriers sharply down on average daily earnings. But container ship
charter rates were up by close to 50%, the Shanghai Container Freight Index
rose by almost 150%, and average earnings for Capesize bulkers shot up by 76%.
Almost all asset
values tracked by the Clarksea Index climbed significantly, with the research
firm’s secondhand index up by 18% across the tracked ship types. Strong
performers included ten-year old 4,500 teu boxships – up 93% to just over $40
million; smaller 2,500 teu vessels – up 26% to $36 million; and five-year old
Capes – up 19% to $62 million.
Commenting on the strong container market, Clarkson Research Managing
Director, Stephen Gordon, noted that Red Sea re-routing has been the largest
single contributory driver, but an earlier peak season and
congestion were also factors. The container market as a whole notched up its
strongest-ever performance outside of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Clarkson’s
Newbuilding Index rose 6%, with significant increases for 15,500 teu container
ships – up 21% to $204 million, and Capes, up 13% to $76 million. The only
vessel class to ease slightly was LNG carriers, with the prevailing price for a
174,000 cu metres unit down 2% to $260 million.
Shipyards built
13% more ships as measured in compensated gross tons, with expansion in China
taking the country’s output to more than half of the total – 53%. More ships were ordered last year than at
any time since 2007. Almost half of the new contracts were alternative-fuelled,
Clarkson said, with LNG the most favoured option.
Firm markets meant
that demo volumes stayed low and rates trailed off over the year. Tankers
scrapped rose from 800,000 dwt in 2023 to 1.8 million dwt; but recycled bulk
carriers fell from 5.4 million dwt to 3.8 million dwt; typical prices eased over the year by 7% – from $510
per light displacement ton to $475.
As 2025 begins, Gordon concluded, the market tone for now seems to be
more cautious in some segments. But key themes of recent years – managing
disruption, with geopolitical uncertainties heightening, and going green
(FuelEU, IMO) – look set to continue.