India’s imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from
the US surged to 256.05 billion cubic feet, or roughly 7.25 billion cubic
meters (BCM), during 2024 calendar year (CY) — the highest on record. According to the US Energy Information
Administration (EIA), India’s LNG imports from the US rose by more than 55 per
cent year-on-year (y-o-y) during CY 2024. Compared to 2022, imports more than
doubled.
More than 15 BCM per year of new sales and purchase
agreements were signed in 2024, as per the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The previous high was registered in 2021 when India
imported 5.56 BCM of LNG from the North American country, which overtook the
UAE as India’s second largest LNG supplier in 2023 CY, after Qatar. In the same
year, the US also became the world’s largest LNG exporter, accounting for 21
per cent of the market, followed by Australia and Qatar.
A top government official said that oil and gas
volumes from the US will rise “for sure”. However, the scope is higher for LNG
considering that India generally imports light sweet crude oil from the US
(WTI), which yields more petrol. Logistics and crude costs are the key as
Middle East crude freight costs are around $1.50 per barrel, roughly one-third
of the US costs.
“February’s joint
statement emphasises on establishing the US as India’s leading supplier of
crude oil, ethane, petroleum products and LNG. India needs more light sweet
crude in line with growing personal vehicles and SUVs. Same with gas and ethane
as industry base expands,” the official added. The US is already India’s sixth largest energy
trade partner, which hit $13.7 billion in FY24. It is also the fifth largest
crude oil supplier and the second largest source for LNG. The US accounted for
roughly 3 per cent of crude oil and 13-13.5 per cent of LNG imports in FY24.
“First tranche of the
bilateral trade agreement is expected in October-December 2025, which will push
energy trade. For instance, crude oil can raise the US share to 5-6 per cent.
During Covid in FY22, American crude imports hit a high of around 8 per cent.
We do not expect the share will go over that for now,” a top official with
a domestic refiner said.
The official too agreed that LNG has more scope
considering the growing requirement for natural gas. “America’s share in LNG
imports can go up to 17-18 per cent easily. More term contracts can be signed,”
he added.
A senior executive
with a top oil and gas company said that LNG supplies from the US to India will
appreciate further in FY26 as the new US administration views LNG as not just a
growth driver, but also a geopolitical lever. “It’s a critical period for global gas market. LNG
trade maps will again undergo some change like after the Russia-Ukraine
conflict. The US is pushing hard and wants to move deeper into India, Japan,
South Korea and Taiwan. Asia is the big game.”
“Besides, the trade
war, these countries are either negotiating or are going to negotiate term
contracts with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. This US push will have
a bearing on negotiations as prices (spot and long term) will soften in the
next 2-3 years, due to excess capacity,” he explained.
American LNG imports are more efficient as freight
cost efficiencies are better than crude oil. Besides, associated gas production
has helped it to export the commodity at competitive terms. Associated natural gas is extracted from
wells that predominantly produce oil and comes mainly from five major
oil-producing regions in the US—the Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford, Anadarko, and
Niobrara. It contains natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs) such as ethane, butane,
and propane.
According to a recent report by Wood Mackenzie,
falling production amidst rising demand for LNG is expected to push up imports
with India likely to become the world’s third largest importer, after China and
Japan, by 2032 with in-bound cargoes accounting for 75 per cent of its gas
consumption.