Since March 15, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has
been carrying out a series of strikes against the Iran backed Houthis that,
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says, will be unrelenting. “Freedom of navigation is basic; it’s a core national interest,”
Hegseth said, adding that the current campaign is about restoring deterrents in
the region in addition to freedom of navigation.
“The minute the Houthis say, ‘We’ll stop shooting
at your ships [and] we’ll stop shooting at your drones,’ this campaign will end
but, until then, it will be unrelenting,” he continued.Hegseth also said the CENTCOM airstrikes were meant to draw Iran’s
attention.
“The message is clear to Iran … Your support of the
Houthis needs to end immediately. We will hold you accountable as the sponsor
of this proxy, and I echo [the president’s] statement [that] we will not be nice about it,” Hegseth
said.
The strikes were
ordered by President Trump on March 15, with the White House issuing a backgrounder cataloging Houthi activities against shipping
that will be more than familiar to to Marine Log readers and
that notes that, before the Houthi attacks, 25,000 merchant ships passed
through the Red Sea annually. The current number has dropped to around 10,000 ships annually...The
Houthis claim to have fired on the USS Harry S. Truman, a
Nimitz-class aircraft carrier based out of Norfolk, Virginia, but Grynkewich
said that is hard to confirm “Quite frankly, it’s hard to tell because while
we’re executing precision strikes, they missed by over 100 miles,” he said. “I
would question anything that they claim to the press that they’re doing or not
doing. It’s very hard to tell … just based on the level of incompetence they’ve
demonstrated.” What does all this mean
for merchant shipping? Maritime risk consultancy has issued a new threat
circular. Here’s a bullet point summary: The Israel-Hamas ceasefire has
been declared over with a resumption of operations in the Gaza Strip.The U.S.
is in the process of conducting an extensive campaign against Ansar Allah (“the
Houthis”). Merchant shipping is at risk of collateral damage offshore Israel. Israel-affiliated
shipping is at risk of targeting in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, including
companies that trade with Israel.A continuation of the U.S. campaign against
the Houthis is assessed to highly likely increase the risk to U.S. merchant
shipping. The U.S. has increasingly threatened Iran with military action since
talks have not been established. U.S. shipping and related tankers are assessed
to be at risk of Iranian retaliation and military action against Iran is
assessed probable if negotiations are not commenced.