Tourists are cancelling trips to the US – here’s how this could affect its economy

The United States is one of the top three most visited countries in the world. The big draw cards – cities such as San Francisco, New York and Chicago and national parks such as Yosemite – have attracted international tourists for decades. This combined with its role as a global business powerhouse meant it had 66.5 million visitors in 2023 – and the 2024 figure is expected to be higher still.

But a lot has changed in recent months, and 2025’s figures may not be as strong. The 2024 reelection of Donald Trump as the president of the United States and the consequential changes in foreign diplomacy and relations, alongside internal cultural shifts, are starting to change global attitudes towards the US – attitudes that appear to be affecting tourists’ desire to visit the US.

In a recent report by research firm Tourism Economics, inbound travel to the US is now projected to decline by 5.5 per cent this year, instead of growing by nearly 9 per cent as had previously been forecast. A further escalation in tariff and trade wars could result in further reductions in international tourism, which could amount to a $18 billion (£13.8 billion) annual reduction in tourist spending in 2025.

There is already some evidence of travel cancellations. Since Trump announced 25 per cent tariffs on many Canadian goods, the number of Canadians driving across the border at some crossings has fallen by up to 45 per cent, on some days, when compared to last year. Canada is the biggest source of international tourists to the US. Air Canada has announced it is reducing flights to some US holiday destinations, including Las Vegas, from March, as demand reduces.

According to a March poll by Canadian market researcher Leger, 36 per cent of Canadians who had planned trips to the United States had already cancelled them. According to data from the aviation analytics company OAG, passenger bookings on Canada to US routes are down by over 70 per cent compared to the same period last year. This comes after the US Travel Association warned that even a 10 per cent reduction in Canadian inbound travel could result in a $2.1 billion (£1.6 billion) loss in spending, putting 140,000 hospitality jobs at risk

Some would-be visitors have cited an unwelcoming political climate as part of a concern about visiting the US – including angry rhetoric about foreigners, migrants and the LGBTQ+ community. The Tourism Economics report also cited “polarising Trump Administration policies and rhetoric” as a factor in travel cancellations. There are other factors that may influence travellers from, for instance, western Europe, which represented 37 per cent of overseas travel to the US last year. These include US tariffs pushing prices up at home and the US administration’s perceived alignment with Russia in the war in Ukraine...Multiple European countries, including France, Germany, Denmark and Norway have also issued specific travel warnings to transgender and non-binary citizens, as US authorities demand tourists declare their biological sex at birth on visa applications. This comes as the US has stopped issuing of passports with a X marker – commonly used by those identifying as non-binary – for its own citizens...There are already growing concerns that visa and entry restrictions will disrupt fans and athletes from enjoying 2026 men’s FIFA World Cup, held on sites in the US, Canada and Mexico. Visitors from some countries, such as Brazil, Turkey and Colombia, could wait up to 700 days to obtain visas.

The International Olympic Committee has also raised concerns over the 2028 Olympics Games in Los Angeles, although US officials have insisted that “America will be open”.