Tariffs set to dramatically reduce U.S. port traffic

“Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but that opportunity has come to an end with the imposition of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said. “Tariffs are taxes on U.S importers ultimately paid by consumers. They are creating anxiety and uncertainty for American businesses and families alike with the speed at which they are being implemented and stacked upon each other. At this point, retailers are expected to pull back and rely on built-up inventories, at least long enough to see what will happen next.”

Following tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico announced earlier this year, President Donald Trump last week set a minimum tariff of 10% on all U.S. trading partners and “reciprocal” tariffs as high as 50% on dozens of nations. China has since announced tariffs on U.S. goods, prompting Trump to announce additional tariffs on China, bringing the base rate to 104% just for the national emergency tariffs. The rate goes even higher when the base tariff rate and earlier Section 301 tariffs are added in. As a result, imports during the second half of 2025 are now expected to be down at least 20% year over year, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. Even balanced against elevated levels earlier this year, that could bring total 2025 cargo volume to a net decline of 15% or more unless the situation changes.

“In this environment of complete uncertainty, our forecast for import cargo will be subject to significant adjustments over the coming months,” Hackett said. “At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year.”

Speaking of uncertainty, President Trump likely added it to it witha social media post today, that, after announcing another tariff hike on China, adds “based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”