Trade tensions, visa woes impact US travel demand

Ongoing trade tensions and unease among students over tighter visa regulations are slowing down travel demand to the US.

On an overall basis, overseas visitor arrivals (excluding Mexico and Canada) in the US declined 11.6 per cent in March on a year-on-year basis, data from National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) show. A reduction in arrivals was seen from all regions except East Europe and West Asia. Indian arrivals in the US dropped 3.6 per cent in March and have remained flat in the first three months of CY 2025. NTTO data includes leisure tourists, business visitors and students.

While US president Donald Trump has paused imposition of tariffs for all countries except China and is negotiating trade deals, the uncertainty is resulting in travel deferrals. Enrollments by Indian students in the US have reduced and recent revocation of study visas have added to anxieties Travel sentiment in India towards the US has been significantly impacted as a result of US government actions, said Ajay Bali, managing director (India), BCD Travel… Airfares from Mumbai/Delhi to the US in April-June period, too, are 5-8 per cent lower than last year indicating muted demand.

A recent poll by the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) echoes similar concerns. Globally, nearly a third of corporate travel managers estimate significant decrease in business travel volume in 2025 due to US government policies.  “While the outlook for global business travel was incredibly strong coming into 2025, our research now shows increasing concerns and uncertainty within our industry,” said Suzanne Neufang, CEO of GBTA…GBTA’s latest poll was based on responses from 905 corporate travel managers, with over half of them based in the US. Indian participants accounted for 2 per cent of the total. Some however believe that fears of a slowdown in India US travel are overblown. “It is pretty much business as usual for us,” said a head of an online travel agency.

“Throughout the first few months of the year, travel and bookings from India to the US have remained steady year-on-year,” said Sunny Sodhi, Managing Director, FCM Travel India.

While Sodhi remains confident of the resilience of travel industry, he foresees a possible change in focus by companies.

“It is a very different landscape today compared to what it was at the beginning of the year, and we are conscious that companies may prioritise business and trade with other nations,” Sodhi remarked.